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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

But this year's field is distinctly different. The group of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime also-rans rising in unison. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

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