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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.