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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd